WHAT CONSEQUENCES DO DPRK BALLISTIC MISSILE SUBMARINE TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTS POSE FOR ROK AND U.S. SECURITY POSTURES NOW AND IN THE FUTURE?

Abstract

The DPRK’s WMD programs pose increasing threats to security in the region. To better understand that challenge, this thesis investigates specifically the consequences for U.S. and ROK strategic postures arising from current DPRK efforts to develop Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBM) and Ballistic Missile Submarines (SSB). This SLBM/SSB effort bears directly on the ROK Navy’s current efforts to counter wider technology and capability improvements by the DPRK Navy in the undersea domain as well as broader ROK interests in adopting a more global focus for its military posture. The DPRK’s SLBM/SSB ambitions also directly impact U.S. security interests on issues including extended deterrence assurances to the ROK, regional anti-submarine warfare capabilities, and wartime operational control of military forces on the Korean Peninsula. To address its focal concern, the thesis first presents the current status of the DPRK SLBM and SSB programs. The thesis then utilizes these details to estimate DPRK intentions in pursuing these programs. On this basis, the thesis then evaluates recent and prospective ROK responses. Overall, the thesis reaches two conclusions. On the one hand, given U.S. and ROK capacities, the potential threat posed by the DPRK’s aim to deploy nuclear-capable SLBMs will be negligible. However, the DPRK leadership’s overestimation of its SLBM/SSB capabilities could fuel risky provocative behavior eroding regional stability and deepen crisis dangers.