A personnel flow model for predicting the Coast Guard enlisted force structure
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Authors
Bardo, Lance L.
Subjects
Manpower model
Personnel flow model
Attrition rates
Full time equivalent
Enlisted force structure
Markov transition model
Spreadsheet
Personnel flow model
Attrition rates
Full time equivalent
Enlisted force structure
Markov transition model
Spreadsheet
Advisors
Milch, Paul R.
Date of Issue
1987-09
Date
September 1987
Publisher
Language
en_US
Abstract
The U.S. Coast Guard is a military service with a hierarchical organization. CG manpower planning requires a forecast of the number of accessions needed as well as the resulting force structure for each month of the upcoming year. In this thesis, we present a modified Markov transition model that integrates the pertinent personnel flows to forecast the monthly accessions and force structure for the enlisted CG. Personnel flows are estimated using standard statistical techniques such as linear regression analysis and point estimation. An algorithm is presented to solve for end of mother stocks was meeting a man year consumption constraint--Full Time Equivalent (FTE) when attrition rates and the beginning and end of year stocks are given. Finally, the pertinent personnel flow estimates, the FTE algorithm and the modified Markov model are integrated into a comprehensive Military Employment Capability Plan which is programmed on a micro-computer spreadsheet.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Department of Operations Research
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
173 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.