Analysis of recruit attrition from the Navy's delayed entry program and recruit training command

Abstract

This thesis analyzes demographic and assignment factors associated with recruit attrition from the U.S. Navy's Delayed Entry Program (DEP) and Recruit Training Command (RTC). These factors include education credentials, enlistment programs, and women in traditional ratings. The Navy currently screens applicants using three qualification "tiers" based on education credentials. Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) scores are cross-referenced with education tier to create the Navy's Recruit Quality Matrix, which determines enlistment eligibility. The analysis uses the PRIDE database, provided by Commander, Navy Recruiting Command. Trend analyses are used to identify significant changes in enlistment and attrition behavior for recruits who joined from fiscal years 1998 through 2005. Probit regression models are also constructed using these data to identify differences in attrition probabilities. Results show that education credential, time in DEP, gender, marital status, AFQT score, enlistment program, and Navy Recruiting District are significant factors affecting DEP attrition. Analyses of RTC data indicate similar factors are significant when predicting RTC attrition. A tool for screening applicants based on education credential, AFQT score, and age is designed to more accurately predict RTC attrition. Further research is recommended to conduct similar analyses on attrition throughout the first term, and on individual Navy Recruiting Districts.