Uncertainty in modeled upper ocean heat content change
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Authors
Tokmakian, Robin
Challenor, Peter
Subjects
GCM
Ocean
Emulators
CMIP3
Multi-model
Uncertainty
Ocean
Emulators
CMIP3
Multi-model
Uncertainty
Advisors
Date of Issue
2013
Date
Publisher
Springer
Language
Abstract
This paper examines the uncertainty in the change in the heat content in the ocean component of a general circulation model. We describe the design and implementation of our statistical methodology. Using an ensemble of model runs and an emulator, we produce an estimate of the full probability distribution function (PDF) for the change in upper ocean heat in an Atmosphere/Ocean General Circulation Model, the Community Climate System Model v. 3, across a multi-dimensional input space. We show how the emulator of the GCM’s heat content change and hence, the PDF, can be validated and how implausible outcomes from the emulator can be identified when compared to observational estimates of the metric. In addition, the paper describes how the emulator outcomes and related uncertainty information might inform estimates of the same metric from a multi-model Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 ensemble.
Type
Article
Description
The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1709-9
Series/Report No
Department
Oceanography
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funding
Format
Citation
Climate Dynamics Observational, Theoretical and Computational Research on the Climate
System, ISSN 0930-7575
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.