THE CONCEPTUAL DESIGN RELIABILITY PREDICTION METHOD: ESTABLISHING FUNCTIONAL-PHYSICAL RELIABILITY RELATIONSHIPS FOR SYSTEM RELIABILITY PREDICTIONS DURING CONCEPTUAL DESIGN
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Authors
Rajchel, Elizabeth T.
Subjects
early design reliability prediction method
EDRPM
conceptual design reliability prediction method
CDRPM
reliability prediction
hierarchical Bayesian
Markov Chain Monte Carlo
MCMC
Monte Carlo Simulation
MCS
reliability block diagram
RBD
failure rate
success ratio
EDRPM
conceptual design reliability prediction method
CDRPM
reliability prediction
hierarchical Bayesian
Markov Chain Monte Carlo
MCMC
Monte Carlo Simulation
MCS
reliability block diagram
RBD
failure rate
success ratio
Advisors
O'Halloran, Bryan M.
Huang, Jefferson
Date of Issue
2020-09
Date
Sep-20
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
This paper presents a system reliability prediction method suitable for use during conceptual design, called the conceptual design reliability prediction method (CDRPM). The CDRPM extends the early design reliability prediction method (EDRPM) by facilitating parameter characterizations that follow non-normal distributions. Functional-physical reliability relationships are established through a hierarchical Bayesian model solved by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and aggregated using the system's reliability block diagram (RBD) to assess the likelihood of candidate architectures meeting a reliability requirement. Reliability predictions based on different types of failure data, specifically success ratios and failure rates, are compared herein in a case study of a generic launcher system assessed by the CDRPM. This research shows the effects of failure data type selection and distribution assumptions on architecture down-selection, leading to enhanced insight during conceptual design analysis.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Systems Engineering (SE)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States