An application of survival analysis methods to the study of Marine enlisted attrition
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Authors
Hawes, Eric A.
Subjects
Military attrition
Survival analysis
Log-linear regression
Survival analysis
Log-linear regression
Advisors
Read, R.R.
Date of Issue
1990-03
Date
March 1990
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
This thesis is an application of survival analysis methods to study first term enlisted attrition from the Marine Corps. The data comprise over 99 percent of all enlisted accessions into the Marine Corps between 1 October 1983, and 31 August 1988. A large percentage of the observations are censored, thus motivating the use of survival analysis techniques. The enlistees are categorized by three covariates: education credential, Armed Forces Mental Group and presencenon-presence of a moral waiver. The attrition behavior of the enlistees is then examined to identify which covariate classifications are associated with premature attrition. The majority of the findings concerning the effects of the covariates on attrition are consistent with published results from previous military attrition studies. Two findings of the thesis, though, are perhaps new. First, the attrition behavior of alternate high school credential holders varied significantly according to credential type. Second, the relationship between aptitude and attrition behavior appears to have weakened in recent years. The thesis also provides an opportunity to evaluate the uncommon practice of using survival analysis methods to examine military attrition. The results are promising as the survival analysis methods prove to be both accurate and efficient. Graphical plots of survivor function estimates provide an easily understood illustration of attrition behavior. The use of log- linear regression to model military attrition shows potential as a desk-top tool for conducting informal analyses.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Department of Operations Research
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
ix, 79 p. ill.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.