A study on predictive analytics application to ship machinery maintenance

Abstract

Engine failures on ships are expensive, and affect operational readiness critically due to long turn-around times for maintenance. Prior to the engine failures, there are signs of engine characteristic changes, for example, exhaust gas temperature (EGT), to indicate that the engine is acting abnormally. This is used as a precursor towards the modeling of failures. There is a threshold limit of 520 degree Celsius for the EGT prior to the need for human intervention. With this knowledge, the use of time series forecasting technique, to predict the crossing over of threshold, is appropriate to model the EGT as a function of its operating running hours and load. This allows maintenance to be scheduled just in time. When there is a departure of result from the predictive model, Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) Control charts can then be used to monitor the change early before an actual problem arises. This paper discusses and demonstrates the proof of principle for one engine and a particular operating profile of a commercial vessel with the use of predictive analytics. The realization with time series forecasting coupled with CUSUM control chart allows this approach to be extended to other attributes beyond EGT.