A robust optimization approach to hybrid microgrid operation using ensemble weather forecasts
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Authors
Craparo, Emily
Karatas, Mumtaz
Singham, Dashi I.
Subjects
Robust optimization
Microgrid
Renewable energy
Microgrid
Renewable energy
Advisors
Date of Issue
2017-09
Date
Publisher
Elsevier
Language
Abstract
Hybrid microgrids that use renewable energy sources can improve energy security and islanding time while reducing costs. One potential beneficiary of these systems is the U.S. military, which can seek to improve energy security when operating in isolated areas by using a microgrid rather than relying on a fragile (or nonexistent) commercial network. Renewable energy sources can be intermittent and unpredictable, making it difficult to plan operations of a microgrid. We describe a scenario-robust mixed-integer linear program designed to utilize ensemble weather forecasts to improve the performance of a hybrid microgrid containing both renewable and traditional power sources. We exercise our model to quantify the benefit of using ensemble weather forecasts, and we predict the optimal performance of a hypothetical grid containing wind turbines by using simulated realistic weather forecast scenarios based on data. Because forecast quality degrades with lead time, we perform a sensitivity analysis to determine which planning horizon results in the best performance. Our results show that, for day-ahead planning, longer planning horizons outperform shorter planning horizons in terms of cost of operations, but this improvement diminishes as the planning horizon lengthens.
Type
Article
Description
The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.05.068
Series/Report No
Department
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Office of Naval Research
Funder
Format
13 p.
Citation
Craparo, Emily, Mumtaz Karatas, and Dashi I. Singham. "A robust optimization approach to hybrid microgrid operation using ensemble weather forecasts." Applied energy 201 (2017): 135-147.
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.