An analysis of mathematical models to improve counter-drug smuggling operations
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Authors
Campos, Sylvester III
Subjects
probability
optimization
multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS)
counter-drug smuggling operations
transnational criminal organizations (TCO)
Joint Interagency Task Force South (JIATF South)
drug smugglers
illicit trade
optimization
multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS)
counter-drug smuggling operations
transnational criminal organizations (TCO)
Joint Interagency Task Force South (JIATF South)
drug smugglers
illicit trade
Advisors
Atkinson, Michael
Date of Issue
2014-09
Date
Sep-14
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
The Joint Interagency Task Force South (JIATF South) serves as the center for counterillicit trafficking operations against Central and South American drug cartels. JIATF South has jurisdiction over an enormous area and has a limited number of search and interdiction assets. Thus, mathematical models and tools to improve the search planning process could provide an immense benefit. This thesis contributes to a multiinstitution effort to develop these models and tools. The goal is to provide enhanced situational awareness to operators about the likely location of smuggling targets and recommend search plans. The thesis combines a probability model and an optimization model into a user-friendly tool that operators and researchers can easily use. We also develop methods to convert the output of the probability model into inputs to the optimization model. This could be especially important if environmental factors play a significant role in the routes taken by drug smugglers. We examine how accurately this conversion algorithm reproduces the actual paths taken by smugglers. More importantly, we evaluate how well the search plan generated by the conversion algorithm performs. We find, in most cases, that the conversion algorithm provides excellent results; however, there are some situations where the conversion algorithm performs poorly.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.