THEORETICAL FRAMEWORKS FOR AN EMERGING DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY AWARENESS INDEX FOR POLICY MAKERS

Abstract

Rapid technological advancement, particularly artificial intelligence, poses significant challenges and opportunities for governance frameworks and requires that policy keep pace with technological evolution. This thesis introduces the emerging technology awareness index (ETAI), designed to alert policymakers to emerging technologies. The ETAI distinguishes itself through a dual analysis framework, based on the future sign framework, combining advanced quantitative methods, such as natural language processing, with qualitative insights from the social construction of technology and social identity theory. This approach enables the identification of emerging technological trends and their potential societal impacts, offering a nuanced understanding that extends beyond mere technological advancement to the interplay of societal dynamics and perceptions. Designed to capture the essence of emerging technologies through their radical novelty, rapid growth, coherence, significant potential socioeconomic impact, and inherent uncertainty, the ETAI promises a proactive, informed approach to governance in the face of rapid technological change. This thesis recommends further developing the ETAI prototype, integrating real-time data collection, and continually refining its analytical capabilities, thus ensuring its relevance and utility in guiding policy decisions amid the complexities of technological evolution.