Predicting Proliferation: High Reliability Forecasting Models of Nuclear Proliferation as a Policy & Analytical Aid

Abstract

Objective: Scholars have spent decades studying and explaining nuclear proliferation. This project will develop a model to predict the behavior of states regarding their pursuit and acquisition of nuclear weapons. An accurate prediction model will allow for action against potential suppliers, interdiction of nuclear trade, intelligence collection on covert nuclear activities, and credible military action against countries of concern. The model will not only be a yes or no predictor; it will assess the probability of a state pursuing or acquiring nuclear weapons under a particular set of conditions. It is hoped that this model will be replicated and adjusted to suit the needs of analysts and scholars. Additionally, the model will provide the foundation for future predictive work.