Bayesian solutions to a 2 x 2 decision matrix using interval scaled payoffs with an application to foreign policy decisions.
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Authors
King, Alan R.
Subjects
decision theory
Bayes theorem
Bayes theorem
Advisors
Lindsay, Glenn F.
Date of Issue
1987-09
Date
September 1987
Publisher
Language
en_US
Abstract
Statistical Design Theory is applied to assessing objectively the uncertainty involved in foreign policy decisions. In an international conflict of insterest situation, a protagionist is going to pursue. This problem is addressed by taking observations of the antagonist's behavior. These observations are interpreted as being associated with a specific course of action. Bayes formula is then used to update a conjectured a priori probability function to estimate the course of action being pursued by the antagonist. This updated (a posteriori) conditional probability function is then used to develop a decision rule to select an appropriate response. The decision rule is based on an ordering of possible outcomes, the values assigned to those outcomes, and greatest expected value of return.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funding
Format
64 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.