DANGEROUS ROCKS: FROM STRATEGIC MODERATION TO STRATEGIC COMPETITION
Authors
Cho, Daniel
Subjects
Sino-Japanese relations
power transition theory
economic interdependence
territorial disputes
Senkaku Islands
Diaoyu Islands
constructivism
domestic politics
domestic leaders
nationalism
threat perceptions
power transition theory
economic interdependence
territorial disputes
Senkaku Islands
Diaoyu Islands
constructivism
domestic politics
domestic leaders
nationalism
threat perceptions
Advisors
Weiner, Robert J.
Date of Issue
2019-12
Date
Dec-19
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
At the turn of the 21st century, the Senkaku/Diaoyu territorial dispute between China and Japan evolved from strategic moderation to strategic competition. This thesis examines the causal factors that facilitated the transition from status quo management to status quo rivalry. Before 2010, escalations were relatively restrained along maritime lines and both countries sought to moderate the tension through diplomatic conduct and joint ventures related to the disputed islands. However, misunderstandings driven by more potent domestic pressures, growing threat perceptions, and political opportunism by nationalistic leaders amidst a socio-political and economic transition evolved the dispute into a new level of competitive stability post-2013. More importantly, the escalations from 2010–2013 reinforced growing threat perceptions, and strengthened the political platforms of nationalistic leaders who capitalized on the territorial dispute escalation to advance their agendas. While China and Japan have, so far, re-established a new battle rhythm that attempts to effectively moderate the dispute, the risk of misunderstandings has increased with both countries embarking on more proactive foreign policies backed by more assertive diplomatic and militaristic levers. As a result, while the usefulness of the rivalry for domestic politics has persisted, the risk of conflict has also increased.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs (NSA)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funding
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.