DETERMINING THE LEVEL OF THREAT IRAN POSES TO OIL OUTPUT IN THE GULF REGION
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Authors
Almannaei, Eyyad A.
Subjects
Abqaiq
gulf
oil
Iran
gulf
oil
Iran
Advisors
Ostovar, Afshon P.
Date of Issue
2020-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
With its abundant oil resources and as largest producer of oil in the world, the Arabian Gulf region is of crucial importance to the world. And, oil output from the region has been under threat from Iran since that country’s revolution in 1979. Using academic research as well as available reports from expert panels, government agencies, and media, this thesis examines the level of threat Iran poses to the Gulf oil industry in view of Iran's key military capabilities, including its naval and air capabilities, which could be used to disrupt Arabian Gulf oil production and shipping. This thesis focuses on case studies of specific incidents in which Iran has used these capabilities for similar ends in past attacks, including the 2019 sabotage attacks on civilian ships near Al Fujairah and the Gulf of Oman, and the combined cruise missile and drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s Shaybah and Aramco Abqaiq facilities. These case studies help establish how Iran can use its military capabilities against its neighbors and other adversaries in potential future attacks related to regional oil production and transport. Moreover, the analysis assesses the extent of the damage from such attacks, the constraints Iran faces in orchestrating its attacks, and the likelihood that it will attempt to take such action in the future.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs (NSA)
Organization
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited
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