Determining how to best predict Navy recruiting using various economic variables

Abstract

The objective of this study is to examine the effect that state-level and county-level economic variables have on U.S. Navy recruiting. To achieve this goal, I conducted state-level and county-level fixed effects models that examined the effects of state and county unemployment rates, as well as state employment-to-population ratios on Navy recruiting applicant rates, accession rates, high-quality applicant rates, and high-quality accession rates over the years from 1991 to 2013. Through the state-level and county-level fixed effects model estimation, it is determined that state unemployment rates, state employment-to-population ratios, and county unemployment rates all have a statistically significant effect on Navy recruiting, and that they all predict Navy recruiting equally well.