UPPER-LEVEL BLACK SEA LOW: DIAGNOSING CYCLOGENESIS LEE OF THE MIDDLE TAURUS MOUNTAINS
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Authors
Senter, Jason J.
Subjects
lee cyclogenesis
synoptic
mesoscale
potential vorticity
synoptic
mesoscale
potential vorticity
Advisors
Nuss, Wendell A.
Date of Issue
2020-03
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
An upper-level trough that transited the Black Sea to the lee side of the Middle Taurus Mountains in Southern Turkey is analyzed over the course of three days, from 1200 UTC 17 February to 0000 UTC 20 February 2015. Analysis of this storm, using CFSR re-analysis output as a means to identify a cut-off, upper-level low, with associated downstream sensible weather in the Tigris-Euphrates River Valleys, is a crucial first step in locating a quasi-stationary system. This type of an anomalous event proves challenging for forecasters in predicting timing and impacts in the region. Identifying and describing the dynamical elements of this system as they unfolded lee of the Middle Taurus Mountains utilizing a fine scale WRF simulation revealed a unique relationship of the topography and the upper-level trough. This ability to show a connection of orographic, low-level forcing to upper-level disturbances is the first step in accurately predicting cloud coverage, precipitation, and wind speeds, which are all critical thresholds in forecasting for an area of operation (AO).
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Meteorology (MR)
Organization
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NPS Report Number
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.