VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS OF GUAM’S DEFENSE POSTURE
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Authors
Magno, James F.
Subjects
Guam
U.S. Indo-Pacific Command
People’s Republic of China
People’s Liberation Army
Missile Defense
critical infrastructure
Aegis Ashore
homeland security
U.S. territories
Commonwealth of Northern Marianas Islands
U.S. Indo-Pacific Command
People’s Republic of China
People’s Liberation Army
Missile Defense
critical infrastructure
Aegis Ashore
homeland security
U.S. territories
Commonwealth of Northern Marianas Islands
Advisors
Dahl, Erik J.
Eisenberg, Daniel
Date of Issue
2022-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Since the end of the Second World War, Guam has served as a linchpin of U.S. military power in the Indo-Pacific. As the United States’ westernmost territory in the world, Guam has been lauded as the place where America’s day begins. However, with its strategic importance and abundance of military combat power, Guam may be where America’s next war begins. Following decades of reform and modernization, the People’s Liberation Army presents a significant threat to the preeminence of U.S. military power in the region. This study uses a structured vulnerability analysis based on the principles of risk analysis, reliability engineering, adversarial analysis, and safety engineering to identify Guam’s critical vulnerabilities and formulate recommendations that enhance the territory’s defense posture. This study finds that Guam’s missile defense posture constitutes the island’s most significant vulnerability and recommends that congressional budgetary initiatives must remain focused on enhancing Guam’s missile defense capability and hardening defense infrastructure throughout the Pacific territories. Should modern warfare reach the shores of Guam, the U.S. military will have to fight for Guam before it can fight from it.
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Thesis
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Department
National Security Affairs (NSA)
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.