USMC Manpower Models Modernization

Abstract

In his planning guidance, the Commandant states “We will ... accelerate our transformation from disconnected legacy systems to an integrated data architecture that treats data as it should be–a critical resource” (Berger 2020a, p. 15). This project is a bold step in support of that transformation for Manpower & Reserve Affairs (M&RA), which possesses numerous mathematical models that support the management of the human resources development process (HRDP). Our approach demonstrates how M&RA can leverage the latest technology in data architecture and decision support models to overcome these deficiencies. We formulate modernized versions of models to fill the roles currently held by the Total Force Planning Model (TFPM) and the Enlisted End-Strength Planning Model (ESPM). In addition, we formulate a discrete event simulation model to analyze changes in structure that currently has no legacy counterpart. We successfully replicate the TFPM in Python and identify a number of improvements that should be made with respect to data formatting. An inability to obtain sufficiently accurate separation data prevents progress towards replication of the ESPM. Finally, we successfully implement a discrete event simulation of the manpower system. While initial validation attempts appear favorable, a more complete validation is prevented by the same inability to obtain appropriate data.