APPLICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE LIFE-CYCLE PREDICTIONS FROM PRE-FORMATION STAGE: EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC 2021 SEASON
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Authors
Capalbo, Corie A.
Subjects
tropical cyclone formation
ensemble model predictions
tropical cyclone medium-range track forecasts
tropical cyclone intensity forecasts
ensemble model predictions
tropical cyclone medium-range track forecasts
tropical cyclone intensity forecasts
Advisors
Elsberry, Russell L.
Nuss, Wendell A.
Date of Issue
2022-03
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
This thesis documents advancements made during the 2021 season test of pre-formation tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts in the eastern North Pacific (ENP) using Marchok vortex tracker outputs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble. Critical Warm Core Magnitude thresholds are established to predict Time-to-Formation and Time-to-Hurricane timings and positions along 15-day Weighted-Mean Vector Motion ensemble tracks. This thesis develops and tests a decision flowchart to assist forecasters in the critical task to efficiently select the pre-formation ensemble storms most likely to become TCs, and to non-select false alarm storms. The flowchart effectiveness is demonstrated, and validations of these techniques are provided for hurricanes Enrique and Felicia, strong Tropical Storm (TS) Guillermo and weak TS Jimena, and a non-developing disturbance. Thus, an opportunity exists for TC warning centers to provide accurate long-range intensity and track predictions of potential TCs from the pre-formation stage. This thesis is prepared as guidance to forecasters to facilitate integration of these techniques into operational centers and increase forecast confidence at much earlier stages of developing and non-developing TCs. While this thesis confirms the effectiveness of this forecast process for ENP pre-formation TCs, the findings suggest a promising capability for application in other basins.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Meteorology (MR)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Office of Naval Research, 875 N. Randolph Street, Suite 1425, Arlington, VA 22203-1995
Funding
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Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.