NATO’S STRATEGIC CONCEPTS AND POST–COLD WAR DETERRENCE
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Authors
Eickhoff, Nik
Subjects
NATO
Russia
Europe
Deterrence
Defense
Strategy
NATO's Strategic Concepts
1991 Strategic Concept
1999 Strategic Concept
2010 Strategic Concept
2022 Strategic Concept
post-Cold War
Alliance Policies
Deterrence and Defense Posture
Security Institutions
Security Politics
Security Concepts
Security Strategy
Collective Defense
Collective Security
Russia
Europe
Deterrence
Defense
Strategy
NATO's Strategic Concepts
1991 Strategic Concept
1999 Strategic Concept
2010 Strategic Concept
2022 Strategic Concept
post-Cold War
Alliance Policies
Deterrence and Defense Posture
Security Institutions
Security Politics
Security Concepts
Security Strategy
Collective Defense
Collective Security
Advisors
Shore, Zachary
Date of Issue
2023-06
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 shook the European security architecture and created tensions between Russia and the West. In response, NATO announced in its 2022 Strategic Concept that it would regard Russia as the greatest threat and strengthen its deterrence and defense posture. Given ongoing tensions, the Alliance needs to reevaluate its deterrence and defense concepts. This thesis critically analyzes NATO’s post–Cold War Strategic Concepts, focusing on NATO’s role in shaping deterrence policies in response to the changing dynamics of NATO–Russia relations. The thesis concludes that the Allies and Russia have come into conflict due to differing worldviews. The expansion of NATO’s collective security space followed Russia’s decision to adopt a more confrontational stance. This conflict is not reflected in NATO’s first three post–Cold War Strategic Concepts but changed with Russia’s intervention in Ukraine in 2014. NATO increasingly adjusted its deterrence and defense posture in Eastern Europe, culminating in its 2022 Strategic Concept, in which the Alliance henceforth restored NATO’s core historical policy. Whether NATO can continue to rely on deterrence by punishment or shift to deterrence by denial remains open to debate. The latter would result in the Allies considering a complete redesign of the European security architecture to deploy troops at the Russian border permanently.
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Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs (NSA)
Organization
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NPS Report Number
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
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Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner.