Applying Bayesian belief networks in Sun Tzu's Art of war
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Authors
Ang, Kwang Chien
Subjects
Sun Tzu
Art of War
Causality
Causal Map
Bayesian Network
Bayesian Belief Network
Circular Reasoning
Art of War
Causality
Causal Map
Bayesian Network
Bayesian Belief Network
Circular Reasoning
Advisors
McCormick, Gordon
Manago, Saverio
Date of Issue
2004-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
The principles of Sun Tzu's Art of War have been widely used by business executives and military officers with much success in the realm of competition and conflict. However, when conflict situations arise in a highly stressful environment coupled with the pressure of time, decision makers may not be able to consider all the key concepts when forming their decisions or strategies. Therefore, a structured reasoning approach may be used to apply Sun Tzu's principles correctly and fully. Sun Tzu's principles are believed to be able to be modeled mathematically; hence, a Bayesian Network model (a form of mathematical tool using probability theory) is used to capture Sun Tzu's principles and provide the structured reasoning approach. Scholars have identified incompleteness in Sun Tzu's appreciation of information in war and his application of secret agents. This incompleteness resulted in circular reasoning when both sides of the conflict apply his principles. This circular reasoning can be resolved through the use of advanced probability theory. A Bayesian Network Model however, not only provides a structured reasoning approach, but more importantly, it can also resolve the circular reasoning problem that has been identified.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funding
Format
xiv, 55 p. ;
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner.