Transitions from violence to politics: conditions for the politicization of violent non-state actors
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Authors
Hanrahan, Brian
Woody, David C.
Subjects
politicization
politicize
political transition
transition to politics
factors for politicization
factors for transition
politicize
political transition
transition to politics
factors for politicization
factors for transition
Advisors
Robinson, Glenn E.
Burks, Robert E.
Date of Issue
2015-12
Date
Dec-15
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
It is imperative for a nation to understand the most effective way to combat threats to its national security, and at times the best reaction to a violent atrocity could be diplomatic. This thesis examines the politicization process of violent non-state actors and the five statistical factors that contribute to the likelihood of a successful transition from violence to politics. These five salient factors include the occurrence of negotiations, the ideology of the organization, the motivations of the organization, the types of targets it selects to attack, and the longevity of the group. These factors are identified through a statistical analysis, and tested in successive chapters examining case studies of violent actors that have successfully politicized, are currently transitioning, or have failed. The objective of this thesis is to determine if the factors examined can be used to predict the likelihood of other violent non-state actors successfully transitioning to politics. Additionally, the case is made that politicization significantly reduces violence. The conclusion suggests how legitimate state actors that are combating violent non-state actors can gauge ripeness for politicization and suggests how to focus a state’s efforts in order to support either a political transition or facilitate a group’s collapse.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Defense Analysis (DA)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
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Funder
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.