Performance review of the officer rate generator, version 1.0

Abstract

Manpower attrition rage generator, Marine Corps, Manpower planning models, Personnel inventory cells, Shrinkage methods, Statistically stable attrition rates. Abstract: The report deals with the author's review of the manpower attrition rate generator developed by Decision Science Associates, Inc. for use with the Marine Corps's manpower planning models. The major focus is on the implementation and documentation of the author's methodology for treating the rather vast number of small personnel inventory cells present. That methodology features two main steps: an algorithm for the aggregation of extremely small but similar (in terms of attrition behavior) cells into groups of moderately sized cells; and the use of modern 'shrinkage' methods applied to the groups in order to provide statistically stable attrition rates. These methods are described and suggestions for expediting their use are made. The use of these methods in other communities is considered and groundwork is laid for such extensions. The question of default values for some model parameters has been studied and a framework to treat these issues has been developed