THE FINNISH DEFENSE FORCES' BUDGET, 1986-2020: ANALYSIS OF FUNDING VARIABILITY
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Authors
Pernu, Tuomas A.
Subjects
defense budget
funding
Finland
correlation
exploratory data analysis
gross domestic product
GDP
funding
Finland
correlation
exploratory data analysis
gross domestic product
GDP
Advisors
Candreva, Philip J.
Brien, Spencer T.
Date of Issue
2021-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Funding is the backbone of national defense; without adequate funding there will not be adequate capabilities to defend a nation. In many cases, the largest discretionary part of a nation’s budget is defense related. This is the case also in Finland. Based on a review on the literature on factors influencing defense budgets in Western nations, this paper builds a theoretical model and uses it to analyze the changes in the Finnish Defense Forces budget between 1986 and 2020. The developed model and analysis consider the following variables: Gross domestic product (GDP), political composition of government, threat, and public support. The analysis reveals that the typical variables known to correlate with Western defense appropriations are not valid for Finland. The explanatory variables that do correlate with the Finnish Defense Forces' budget are GDP and threat. The study, however, also acknowledges that unlike its Western counterparts, Finland not only shares a border with Russia and has engaged in conflicts with that country twice, but Finland is also not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Such factors may emphasize Finland’s self-reliance in defense matters. Furthermore, the small sample size used in the study may also account for the differences in the correlation of variables and the Finnish Defense Forces’ budget and suggest opportunities for follow-on research.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Department of Defense Management (DDM)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
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Funding
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
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Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner.