Forecasting the occurrence of Monterey precipitation from 500-mb data.
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Authors
Curtis, William R.
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
1957
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
An attempt was made to forecast the occurrence of Monterey precipitation using only 500-mb data. The use of the wind speed and direction and the 24-hour wind direction change at weather ships Papa and November gave no significant results for the period of December 1955 to March 1956. Using West Coast stations, a probability forecasting graph was plotted from the height difference between Santa Maria and Oakland and the 500-mb temperature at Oakland. The results on an independent sample of 151 cases resulted in 75% correct forecasts with a skill score of 0.29. With a sample of 72 the 2-parameter forecast was 68% correct with a skill score of-0.08. When a third parameter, 500-mb wind direction at Oakland, was added, the accuracy increased to 73% correct with a skill score of 0.11. For this set of data neither method gave significant results. Although these results do not shear the accuracy that other objective methods generally have, these results show the possibility of forecasting surface precipitation from 500-mb data. The study of the winter time precipitation at Monterey was undertaken in the spring of 1957 at the U. S. Naval Postgraduate School with the purpose of forecasting the occurrence of Monterey precipitation from 500-mb data.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Aerology