THE IMPACT OF RUSSIA'S INVASION OF UKRAINE ON THE ALIGNMENT OF SMALL STATES
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Authors
Puzan, Angela M.
Subjects
balancing
bandwagoning
omnibalancing
non-alignment
alliances
multipolarity
hedging for profit
stabilitocracy
Great Power Competition
small states
bandwagoning
omnibalancing
non-alignment
alliances
multipolarity
hedging for profit
stabilitocracy
Great Power Competition
small states
Advisors
Matovski, Aleksandar
Date of Issue
2023-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
The 2022 Russo–Ukraine War has pushed international politics toward an atmosphere of competition and conflict that is pressuring states to pick a side of one of the emerging great power blocks. However, globalization has altered the global environment, and the logic of international alignments is not as straightforward as it was during the Cold War. This thesis investigates the changes in strategic postures and alignment choices of European small states in response to this increasingly complex international system. It aims to elucidate the rationales of countries that have hedged their alignments with institutions like the European Union and how these behaviors relate to frameworks in international relations theory. Through a paired comparison, this thesis finds that Serbia’s and Hungary’s authoritarian regimes have leveraged their geopolitical positions and relative safety from external threats to adopt a hedging strategy that extracts benefits from association with Western institutions and their adversaries China and Russia. These diversified partnerships appease key domestic constituencies within these states, and gain them political and economic benefits. This practice of “hedging for profit,” as well as its roots and logic, should be considered when analyzing the behaviors of other states that reside along the boundaries of the major poles of great powers.
Type
Thesis
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Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs (NSA)
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NPS Report Number
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.