Threat Density Map Modeling for Combat Simulations

Abstract

The modeling and simulation community has used probability threat maps and other similar approaches to address search problems and improve decision-making. Probability threat maps describe the probability of a location containing one or more enemy entities at a particular time. Although useful, they only describe the likelihood that the location is occupied without addressing the degree to which it is occupied. Thus, we investigate whether threat density maps that describe the searcher’s expectation of seeing a number of target agents at a certain location in a given time interval are a viable method for improving synthetic behaviors in combat simulations. As a proof of principle, this paper introduces a probability model which quantifies the searcher agent’s subjective belief about the number of enemy entities in a location, given the initial information described by a prior density function and the information provided by the assumed sensing model. In addition, this paper discusses a framework for initializing the model, as well as the model’s key advantages and current limitations.