ASSIGNMENT MATTERS: ANALYZING ORGANIZATIONAL DRIVERS OF FIRST TERM ATTRITION IN THE U.S. NAVY
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Authors
Franchi, Allyson E.
Subjects
early attrition
mental health
manpower
mental health
manpower
Advisors
Shen, Yu-Chu
Lester, Paul
Date of Issue
2025-03
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
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Abstract
A 2020 RAND study reported 36-month attrition across all services at 20%. This means that one in five Sailors attrite prior to completing their initial contract. Most literature has focused on the effect of socio-demographic factors on attrition. This thesis seeks to fill a critical gap in the literature by uncovering the effect of organizational factors on First Term Attrition. This study used descriptive statistics to identify trends in First Term Attrition, survival analysis to understand the timing of attrition subgroups within the sample, and logistic regression analysis to identify relationships between organizational factors and First Term Attrition. This thesis finds that organizational factors and mental health seeking behavior had a more significant effect on First Term Attrition than socio-demographic factors. Sailors assigned to Training Units, Surface Units, and the Professional Apprenticeship Career Track (PACT) were more likely to attrite than their counterparts. Sailors with some mental health seeking behavior were less likely to attrite than those with no mental health seeking behavior or frequent mental health seeking behavior. This thesis identifies critical communities where First Term Attrition is more likely to occur; however, further analysis is required to understand the paths these Sailors are taking to separate prior to contract end. This information is critical to building strategic and targeted interventions to reduce First Term Attrition.
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Thesis
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Distribution Statement
Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.