The cloudy crystal ball: detecting and disrupting homegrown violent extremism
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Authors
Pendley, James Adam
Subjects
homegrown violent extremism
radicalization
terrorism
preventive detention
multidisciplinary teams
threat assessment
risk management
counterterrorism
countering violent extremism
law enforcement
mental health
social work
community partnership
radicalization
terrorism
preventive detention
multidisciplinary teams
threat assessment
risk management
counterterrorism
countering violent extremism
law enforcement
mental health
social work
community partnership
Advisors
Dahl, Erik J.
Miller, Patrick
Date of Issue
2018-03
Date
Mar-18
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Homegrown violent extremism (HVE) is unpredictable, but not completely absent of warning signs. This thesis evaluates how potential homegrown extremists can be identified before an attack occurs, and the use of preventive detention is considered for preempting violent acts. An evaluation of recent HVE incidents-including the Boston Marathon bombing, Charleston church shooting, San Bernardino shooting, Orlando Nightclub massacre, and Fort Lauderdale airport attack-reveals threat investigation gaps. Without a crystal ball, it is unlikely investigators could have predicted violence in these cases, but opportunities for improvement were found in hindsight. This thesis argues multidisciplinary teams (MDTs) and threat assessment tools can contribute to better outcomes in the future. Research in this thesis indicates MDTs using risk assessment instruments can add value to programs that attempt to identify individuals who are more likely to commit extremism-inspired violence, but these techniques lack the precision necessary to justify preventive detention. This thesis introduces and recommends the use of a trusted contact model to visualize how stakeholders in an MDT framework interact. This thesis also recommends a threat assessment matrix to prioritize intervention efforts. The threat assessment matrix aligns a person’s radical belief system with evidence of violent behavior to manage potential risks.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs (NSA)
Organization
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NPS Report Number
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Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner.