Fitting Lanchester Equations to the Battles of Kursk and Ardennes

dc.contributor.authorLucas, Thomas W.
dc.contributor.authorTurkes, Turker
dc.contributor.departmentOperations Research
dc.date.accessioned2014-12-12T23:13:24Z
dc.date.available2014-12-12T23:13:24Z
dc.date.issued2004
dc.descriptionThe article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/nav.10101en_US
dc.description.abstractLanchester equations and their extensions are widely used to calculate attrition in models of warfare. This paper examines how Lanchester models fit detailed daily data on the battles of Kursk and Ardennes. The data on Kursk, often called the greatest tank battle in history, was only recently made available. A new approach is used to find the optimal parameter values and gain an understanding of how well various parameter combinations explain the battles. It turns out that a variety of Lanchester models fit the data about as well. This explains why previous studies on Ardennes, using different minimization techniques and data formulations, have found disparate optimal fits. We also find that none of the basic Lanchester laws (i.e., square, linear, and logarithmic) fit the data particularly well or consistently perform better than the others. This means that it does not matter which of these laws you use, for with the right coefficients you will get about the same result. Furthermore, no constant attrition coefficient Lanchester law fits very well. The failure to find a good-fitting Lanchester model suggests that it may be beneficial to look for new ways to model highly aggregated attrition.en_US
dc.identifier.citationNaval Research Logistics, Volume 51, pp. 95â 116, 2004
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10945/44169
dc.publisherWiley Periodicals, Inc.en_US
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.en_US
dc.subject.authorLanchester equationsen_US
dc.subject.authorBattle of Kursken_US
dc.subject.authorcombat modelsen_US
dc.subject.authorattritionen_US
dc.subject.authormodel validationen_US
dc.titleFitting Lanchester Equations to the Battles of Kursk and Ardennesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dspace.entity.typePublication
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