Explaining Iran's foreign policy, 1979-2009
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Authors
Grubb, Chris.
Subjects
Advisors
Kadhim, Abbas
Date of Issue
2010-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
This thesis examines Iranian foreign policy from 1979 to 2009. Five different explanatory models are evaluated using four well-documented historical examples. The goal of the project is to determine which, if any, of these five commonly used explanatory models possesses the most promise as a predictive tool for policymakers and intelligence analysts. Iranian involvement in the Lebanon Hostage Crisis, their support to Hezbollah, anti-Israel policy, and ongoing nuclear development program provide the context for evaluating realist, ideological, factionalist, constructivist, and two-level game theory models for explaining Iranian foreign policy. Aspects of each theory are assimilated by two-level game theory in such a way as to allow a large degree of explanatory flexibility. Iterative competition among the various interests of the state and political factions, as well as ideological and cultural factors, contribute significantly to each of the historical examples. Two-level game theory is identified as the model possessing the most promise for explaining Iranian state behavior during the period under study.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Security Studies
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
xii, 65 p. ;
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.