Norms in conflict: statecraft, preventive force, and counter-proliferation
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Authors
Allbright, James J.
Subjects
counter-proliferation
preventive attack
international norms
nuclear proliferation
constructivism
realism
preventive attack
international norms
nuclear proliferation
constructivism
realism
Advisors
Blanken, Leo
Davis, Zachary
Date of Issue
2016-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
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Abstract
Israel's preventive attacks against Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981 and Syria's Al-Kibar nuclear site in 2007 are often used to illustrate a fundamental precept of realism—that states will use military force to halt the rise of a rival state, especially if that rival attempts to gain a nuclear weapons capability. However, this approach does not fully explain the timing of such attacks, nor does it account for the consequences of violating another state's sovereignty. In contrast to realism's emphasis on the material balance of power, constructivism focuses on how ideational factors, such as norms of appropriate behavior, shape and constrain a state's behavior. By process tracing the events surrounding the attacks at Osirak and Al-Kibar, this thesis finds that the international norms of sovereignty, intervention, and non-proliferation had a strong influence over Israel's behavior. It builds a normative theory of preventive attack that highlights the role that national identity, sanctions, and ethics play in counter-proliferation strategies. Finally, it concludes by offering policy recommendations for predicting future preventive attacks and leveraging international norms to halt nuclear proliferation.
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Thesis
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.