Nuclear Proliferation Over the Next Decade: Causes, Warning Signs, and Policy Responses; Strategic insights (November 2006)
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Authors
Lavoy, Peter
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
2006-11
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
The intensification of the Iranian and North Korean nuclear crises causes concern that
deteriorating security conditions in the Middle East and Northeast Asia will lead additional
countries to seek nuclear weapons. This special issue, which is based on a conference organized by
the Center for Contemporary Conflict at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, examines the factors
that are likely to shape nuclear proliferation in the next ten years. This introduction analyzes the
conditions and events that might drive new countries to pursue nuclear weapons; the indicators
and cautionary signs that can provide early warning that a country is trying to build nuclear
bombs; and the policy measures that can be adopted to prevent or at least dissuade new
proliferators. A novel analytical approach is developed, focusing on the role of nuclear myths and
mythmakers to help analysts better understand and policymakers better manage nuclear
proliferation over the next decade.
Type
Article
Description
This article appeared in Strategic Insights, November 2006
Series/Report No
Strategic Insights
Department
National Security Affairs (NSA)
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funding
Format
Citation
Strategic Insights, v.5, issue 8 (November 2006)
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.