Extending the state-of-the-art for the COMAN/ATCAL methodology
Loading...
Authors
Yildirim, Ugur Ziya
Subjects
JANUS
ATCAL
COMAN
MLE
Combat models
Simulation
Attrition
ATCAL
COMAN
MLE
Combat models
Simulation
Attrition
Advisors
Taylor, James G.
Murphy, William S.
Date of Issue
1999-03-01
Date
March 1999
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
This thesis reviews currently existing attrition methodologies and critically examines the (ATtrition CALibration) ATCAL approach for heterogeneous force mixes. Lanchester attrition-rate coefficients must be calibrated for use in ATCAL. When the aggregated combat results from a Lanchester-type attrition model agree with the results of a high-resolution simulation, for a particular mix of weapons on either side, the equation is said to be calibrated. Combat scenario runs are made in the high-resolution JANUS combat model. A maximum likelihood estimation approach (COMAN), which incorporates target priority and availability information, is used to estimate the Lanchester attrition rates in the ATCAL model. A continuous-time, three-state Markov chain model of target acquisition in JANUS is used to obtain the target availability parameters required in the COMAN approach. Bootstrap confidence intervals are developed for the attrition-rate estimates and the target availability parameters. The ability of the ATCAL methodology to replay JANUS results in an aggregated, heterogeneous-force replay model is investigated. These developments have the potential for allowing high-resolution simulation results to be extrapolated to a wider spectrum of conditions (e.g., force mixes) than currently possible by virtue of the more detailed nature of the aggregated-replay model involved.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Department of Operations Research
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funding
Format
xix, 122 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner