Analysis of chemical warfare using a transient semi-Markov formulation.

Abstract

This thesis proposes an analytical model to test various assumptions about conventional/chemical warfare. A unit's status in conventional/chemical combat is modeled as states in a semi-Markov chain with transient and absorbing states. The effects of differing chemical threat levels, availability of decontamination assets and assumed personnel degradation rates on expected unit life and capabilities are tested. The model results indicate a possible optimal mix of conventional and chemical weapons. Also the availability of decontamination assets affects expected unit life more than decisions as to when to decontaminate a unit.