AN ARCTIC ENVIRONMENT READINESS (AER) MODEL FOR QUANTIFYING THE IMPACT OF EXTREME ARCTIC WEATHER ON SYSTEM READINESS

Abstract

The Arctic region offers significant opportunities for the U.S. military to expand its footprint, but the geographical location and harsh climate pose challenges to operational expansion in this region. To aid decision makers in assessing the impact of these conditions on readiness of equipment and the feasibility of operational expansion in the Arctic, this thesis develops an Arctic Environment Readiness (AER) model. A case study of a flotilla of ships is used to illustrate how the AER model can estimate readiness and to what degree various factors (such as logistic delay time, temperature, and the addition of a port) impact fleet readiness. The developed model is not only shown capable of quantifying and plotting fleet readiness along a specific route but also scalable and flexible. It can accommodate multiple variables to assess their impact on fleet readiness and allows investigation of requisite maintenance capabilities at a port, which can aid in optimizing port effectiveness and available resources. Although the developed AER model successfully uses a Design Structure Matrices approach to quantify readiness in the design and planning phases, it was limited by a lack of available operational data. With such data in follow-on work, a corresponding model could be developed for different weather conditions and operating environments.