A graph theory approach to predicting functional failure propagation during conceptual systems design
Authors
O’Halloran, Bryan M.
Van Bossuyt, Douglas L.
Papakonstantinou, Nikolaos
Giammarco, Kristin
Subjects
failure propagation
functional design
graph theory
reliability engineering
functional design
graph theory
reliability engineering
Advisors
Date of Issue
2021
Date
Publisher
Wiley
Language
Abstract
An open area of research for complex, cyber-physical systems is how to adequately support decision making using reliability and failure data early in the systems engineering process. Having meaningful reliability and failure data available early offers information to decision makers at a point in the design process where decisions have a high impact to cost ratio. When applied to conceptual system design, widely used methods such as probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) and failure modes effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) are limited by the availability of data and often rely on detailed representations of the system. Further, existing methods for system reliability and failure methods have not addressed failure propagation in conceptual system design prior to selecting candidate architectures. Consideration given to failure propagation primarily focuses on the basic representation where failures propagate forward. In order to address the shortcomings of existing reliability and failure methods, this paper presents the function failure propagation potential methodology (FFPPM) to formalize the types of failure propagation and quantify failure propagation potential for complex, cyber-physical systems during the conceptual stage of system design. Graph theory is leveraged to model and quantify the connectedness of the functional block diagram (FBD) to develop the metrics used in FFPPM. The FFPPM metrics include (i) the summation of the reachability matrix, (ii) the summation of the number of paths between nodes (i.e., functions) i and j for all i and j, and (iii) the degree and degree distribution. In plain English, these metrics quantify the reachability between functions in the graph, the number of paths between functions, and the connectedness of each node. The FFPPM metrics can then be used to make candidate architecture selection decisions and be used as early indicators for risk. The unique contribution of this research is to quantify failure propagation potential during conceptual system design of complex, cyber-physical systems prior to selecting candidate architectures. FFPPM has been demonstrated using the example of an emergency core cooling system (ECCS) system in a pressurized water reactor (PWR).
Type
Article
Description
17 USC 105 interim-entered record; under review.
The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1002/sys.21569
The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1002/sys.21569
Series/Report No
Department
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) and United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Funder
Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) and United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Grant Number NRC-HQ- 84-14-G-0047
Format
22 p.
Citation
O'Halloran, Bryan M., et al. "A graph theory approach to predicting functional failure propagation during conceptual systems design." Systems Engineering 24.2 (2021): 100-121.
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.