Publication:
The probability of accidental nuclear war: a graphical model of the ballistic missile early warning system.

dc.contributor.advisorWeir, Maurice D.
dc.contributor.advisorGafford, Jack B.
dc.contributor.authorMarsh, Barbara Y. Diegel
dc.contributor.corporateNaval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
dc.contributor.departmentOperations Research
dc.dateMarch 1985
dc.date.accessioned2012-11-27T00:02:28Z
dc.date.available2012-11-27T00:02:28Z
dc.date.issued1985-03
dc.description.abstractSix false alarms occurred at NORAD in 1978, 1979, and 1980. These false alarms subsequently regenerated interest in launch policies and the increased possibility of accidental nuclear war, which motivated this investigation. We construct a new model to address several questions: What is the sequence of events and reasonable timing between events in the missile warning system? How much time do decision makers have to respond to a threat? What effects do United States launch policies have on decision-making time? How likely is accidental nuclear war? The results show that accidental nuclear war is not very probable with launch-under-attack, but significantly more likely if the United States adopts a launch-on-warning policy. The final decision and responsibility to use these policies, once they are implemented, rests entirely with the President of the United States.
dc.description.distributionstatementApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
dc.description.serviceLieutenant, United /states Navy
dc.description.urihttp://archive.org/details/theprobabilityof1094521501
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10945/21501
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
dc.subject.authoraccidental nuclear war
dc.subject.authorlaunch-on-warning
dc.subject.authorlaunch-under-attack
dc.subject.authorballistic missile early warning system
dc.subject.authorNORAD
dc.subject.authorearly warning system
dc.subject.authorfalse alarms
dc.subject.lcshOperations analysisen_US
dc.titleThe probability of accidental nuclear war: a graphical model of the ballistic missile early warning system.en_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dspace.entity.typePublication
etd.thesisdegree.disciplineOperations Researchen_US
etd.thesisdegree.grantorNaval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
etd.thesisdegree.levelMastersen_US
etd.thesisdegree.nameM.S. in Operations Researchen_US
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