Enhancing Naval Operational Readiness Through Environmental Impact Analysis

Abstract

Because weather and other impacts can present hazardous conditions to the U.S. Navy, researchers are striving to understand how the environment could impact naval operations. Historically, environmental conditions have not been considered in long-term applications when planning for maritime operations. The lack of integration of such hazards may negatively impact naval operations, such as Underway Replenishments and Replenishments at Sea (RAS). These essential operations sustain naval operations and enable naval forces to operate in the Arctic region. To understand the environmental impacts, the research team analyzed naval operations in the Greenland-Iceland-UK region by plotting and analyzing the spatially averaged annual and seasonal data to investigate broad, region-wide patterns. Based on this methodology, this report advances an understanding of Arctic environmental impacts and how they affect current and future operations. Prior research shows that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives significant subseasonal to seasonal variability in wave heights, wave period, and mean wind speeds and gusts. Operational planners should consider uncertainty and variability in mean conditions by incorporating the full distribution of events, especially the extreme events. While monthly and seasonal mean wave height and wind conditions may be below unfavorable or marginal limits, there is enough variability in the data to warrant caution and attention to the NAO as it is the primary driver of subseasonal to seasonal weather variability. Finally, operational limits are likely to be exceeded across the North Atlantic during the winter, especially during NAO positive events. Plans that are not informed by environmental variability are likely to be overly optimistic in the ability to conduct RAS operations year-round across the region. These results suggest that when planning for sustainment operations, seasonality and climatological variability play a role in the expected number of days available across the region and in specific areas for RAS operations. Planners cannot assume that favorable or marginal conditions will exist year to year and support RAS operations year-round across the region.