POLICY APPROACHES AND DETERMINANTS OF SOUTH KOREA’S FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY AMID U.S.–CHINA STRATEGIC COMPETITION: FROM THE KIM DAE-JUNG TO YOON SUK-YEOL ADMINISTRATIONS (1998–2025)

Abstract

This study examines how six South Korean administrations—from Kim Dae-jung to Yoon Suk-yeol—selected foreign and security policy approaches amid U.S.–China strategic competition. Using Victor Cha’s framework of three dilemmas (power/geography, economy/trade, North Korea/unification) and applying an expanded typology ([Soft/Hard] Linking, [Soft/Hard] Decoupling, Hedging), the study compares policy approach choices across conservative and progressive governments. It further analyzes their determinants through a reorganized version of Rosenau’s pre-theory, focusing on systemic, governmental/societal, and individual factors. The findings show partial ideological patterns in the power/geography and North Korea/unification domains, while economic interdependence with China constrained distinctions in the economy/trade dilemma. Systemic pressures strengthened over time for all administrations, but presidential beliefs exerted more continuous influence than expected. Governmental and societal factors often diverged, and in extreme security situations—whether unusually peaceful or acutely tense—all determinants tended to align. Overall, South Korea’s strategic behavior resulted from dynamic interactions among external structures, domestic politics, and individual leadership rather than ideological orientation alone. The study concludes with policy implications for enhancing institutional continuity and offers suggestions for future research.