FROM CANALS TO ARCTIC FRONTS: ADVANCING MARINE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM RESILIENCE THROUGH NETWORK SCIENCE MODELING OF CHOKEPOINTS

Abstract

This thesis examines how disruptions to major maritime chokepoints reshape globally distributed supply chains. Using U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) maritime exports as a representative case, it explores which chokepoints alter trade-flow geometry most significantly, which indicators best measure system stress and adaptation, and which routing or infrastructure options strengthen resilience most effectively. A geospatial network model constructed in ArcGIS Pro mapped 2016–2024 U.S. LNG flows through nine global chokepoints to evaluate distance, transit time, and cost using standardized metrics. Six scenarios were tested to examine how routing, workload, and cost respond under stress. Results show that chokepoint dependence is quantifiable: the Panama Canal produces the broadest global effect, Suez imposes regional strain, and the Strait of Gibraltar is the most structurally critical. Furthermore, a Pacific-facing terminal shortens voyages, lowers chokepoint exposure, and reduces system-wide costs, while Arctic routes currently favor U.S. competitors over U.S. exporters. The study concludes that network-science tools can quantify the system’s vulnerabilities and reveal how targeted investments enhance resilience. Although demonstrated through LNG, the framework offers a scalable, transparent method for assessing resilience across energy systems and intermodal supply chains and suggests a future Maritime Resilience Dashboard to support real-time planning and decision-making.