Operational Effectiveness of Suicide Bomber Detector Schemes: A Best-Case Analysis

dc.contributor.authorKress, Moshe
dc.contributor.authorKaplan, Edward H.
dc.contributor.departmentOperations Research (OR)
dc.date2005
dc.date.accessioned2014-01-09T22:22:01Z
dc.date.available2014-01-09T22:22:01Z
dc.date.issued2005
dc.descriptionProceedings of the National Academy of Science, Vol. 102, No. 29, pp. 10399-10404.en_US
dc.descriptionhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0500567102en_US
dc.description.abstractStandoff explosives-detection technologies allow, in principle, for the detectioin of pedestrian suicide bombers, although such sensors are not yet sufficiently affordable and reliable to justify wide-spead development. What if they were? Assuming the availability of cheap, perfectly sensitive and specific suicide-bomber-sensing devices, we analyze the operational effectiveness of sensor-based detector schemes in reducing casualties from random suicide-bombing attacks. We model the number of casualties from pedestrian suicide absent intervention, the reduction in casualties from alternative interventions, given timely detection of a suicide-bombing attack, and the probability of timely detection under best-case assumptions governing the performance of suicide-bomber-detection schemes in two different urban settings. Even under such optimistic assumptions, we find that the widespread deployment of suicide-bomber detectors will not reliably result in meaningful casualty reductions. Relaxing the best-case assumptions only makes matters worse. Investment in intelligence-gathering to prevent suicide bombers before they attack seems a wiser strategy than relying on sensor-based suicide-bomber-detector schemes.en_US
dc.identifier.citation2005 “Operational Effectiveness of Suicide Bomber Detector Schemes: A Best-Case Analysis” (with E. Kaplan), Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, Vol. 102, No. 29, pp. 10399-10404.
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10945/38170
dc.rightsdefined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.en_US
dc.titleOperational Effectiveness of Suicide Bomber Detector Schemes: A Best-Case Analysisen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dspace.entity.typePublication
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