Comparison of Fleet Numerical Weather Central acoustic forecast system and the Integrated Carrier Acoustic Prediction System (ICAPS)

Abstract

The Naval Oceanographic Office developed the Integrated Carrier Acoustic Prediction System (ICAPS) in order to perform on-scene acoustic forecasts for the Fleet. To evaluate the system, bathythermographic information was obtained for points in the North Atlantic during the naval exercise "SEACONEX." Fleet Numerical Weather Center (FNWC) provided climatological and synoptic temperature profiles along with related acoustical forecasts for the points under study. Similarly, ICAPS supplied a combined climatological and synoptic temperature profile and related acoustics forecasts for each of the points. Comparisons of the two systems were made against an actual mean temperature profile and the acoustic forecasts that it generated. It appears that the acoustic forecasts were not reliable tactically. Yet, the synoptic forecasts by FNWC did yield reliable low frequency acoustic forecasts within the limits of computer roundoff error. ICAPS capability for only a single temperature profile input proved to yield reliable acoustic forecasts, and should be used as the real-time acoustic forecast system for the Fleet.