Predictability of ice concentration anomalies in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic using a statistical approach
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Authors
Garcia, Katharine Shanebrook
Subjects
ice concentration
sea ice
correlation techniques
regression analysis
statistical analysis
arctic climate
COADS
SEIC
ice forecasting
Greenland Sea
Barents Sea
sea ice
correlation techniques
regression analysis
statistical analysis
arctic climate
COADS
SEIC
ice forecasting
Greenland Sea
Barents Sea
Advisors
Bourke, Robert H.
Johnson, Laura D.
Date of Issue
1988-12
Date
December 1988
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
Based on a 27 year data record from the COADS and SEIC data sets, a statistical analysis of ice concentration, sea surface temperature (SST), air temperature, U and V wind components, and sea level pressure anomaly data was conducted for five locations in the ice-covered waters of the North Atlantic. Spectral densities and autocorrelations of the time series for each variable were calculated to establish a measure of persistence and periodicity. Regression equations were formulated based on the above data sets to forecast both the winter and summer ice concentration anomalies for each location. The differing effects of land and ice boundaries, currents, storm passages and wind velocity anomalies on the ice concentration anomalies at each location were reflected by the parameters retained by each of the regression equations. In addition to ice concentration anomalies at various lags, the inclusion of meteorological and oceanographic parameters was shown to increase the total explained model variance, which should improve the accuracy of an ice concentration anomaly forecast at lead times of at least one season over a forecast based on ice concentration anomaly persistence alone.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Oceanography
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
87 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.