A cost model for estimating operating and support costs for US Navy (nuclear) submarines
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Authors
Allison, William J.
Subjects
Government
Cost estimating
Submarines
Operating and support
Statistics/regression
Cost estimating
Submarines
Operating and support
Statistics/regression
Advisors
Anderson, Timothy P.
Date of Issue
2000-06-01
Date
June 2000
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
This thesis attempts to formulate a parametric cost model to estimate the annual operating and support (O&S) cost of future U.S. Navy (nuclear) submarines, based on presumed physical characteristics and manpower expectations. Source data for the analysis is obtained from the Navy's VAMOSC database. Using regression analysis techniques, cost estimating relationships are developed for three assumed cost drivers - manpower, length, and submerged displacement. However, the analysis reveals that there is no significant relationship between annual O&S cost and the three assumed cost drivers. Therefore, an alternative method of estimating annual O&S cost is presented using probabilistic assessment of cost based on the empirical annual O&S cost distribution. The probabilistic assessment method allows decision-makers and cost analysts to estimate the annual O&S cost for which there is a desired probability that the true annual O&S cost of a new submarine will not be exceeded. For example, historically, 80 percent of all SSNs have experienced annual O&S costs of less than $27 M (CY99$), while the remaining 20 percent have experienced annual O&S costs greater than $27 M (CY99$). So, loosely speaking, one can be approximately 80 percent confident that the annual O&S cost of a newly acquired SSN will be no more than $27 M (CY99$). Similar results can be obtained for an SSN or SSBN, and for any desired probability.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research (OR)
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
xiv, 61 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.