A cost model for estimating operating and support costs for US Navy (nuclear) submarines

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dc.contributor.advisorAnderson, Timothy P.
dc.contributor.authorAllison, William J.
dc.contributor.corporateNaval Postgraduate School
dc.contributor.departmentOperations Research (OR)
dc.contributor.secondreaderButtrey, Samuel E.
dc.dateJune 2000
dc.date.accessioned2012-08-09T18:47:22Z
dc.date.available2012-08-09T18:47:22Z
dc.date.issued2000-06-01
dc.description.abstractThis thesis attempts to formulate a parametric cost model to estimate the annual operating and support (O&S) cost of future U.S. Navy (nuclear) submarines, based on presumed physical characteristics and manpower expectations. Source data for the analysis is obtained from the Navy's VAMOSC database. Using regression analysis techniques, cost estimating relationships are developed for three assumed cost drivers - manpower, length, and submerged displacement. However, the analysis reveals that there is no significant relationship between annual O&S cost and the three assumed cost drivers. Therefore, an alternative method of estimating annual O&S cost is presented using probabilistic assessment of cost based on the empirical annual O&S cost distribution. The probabilistic assessment method allows decision-makers and cost analysts to estimate the annual O&S cost for which there is a desired probability that the true annual O&S cost of a new submarine will not be exceeded. For example, historically, 80 percent of all SSNs have experienced annual O&S costs of less than $27 M (CY99$), while the remaining 20 percent have experienced annual O&S costs greater than $27 M (CY99$). So, loosely speaking, one can be approximately 80 percent confident that the annual O&S cost of a newly acquired SSN will be no more than $27 M (CY99$). Similar results can be obtained for an SSN or SSBN, and for any desired probability.en_US
dc.description.distributionstatementApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
dc.description.serviceLieutenant Commander, United States Navyen_US
dc.description.urihttp://archive.org/details/acostmodelforest109457659
dc.format.extentxiv, 61 p.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10945/7659
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherMonterey, California. Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.en_US
dc.subject.authorGovernmenten_US
dc.subject.authorCost estimatingen_US
dc.subject.authorSubmarinesen_US
dc.subject.authorOperating and supporten_US
dc.subject.authorStatistics/regressionen_US
dc.titleA cost model for estimating operating and support costs for US Navy (nuclear) submarinesen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dspace.entity.typePublication
etd.thesisdegree.disciplineOperations Researchen_US
etd.thesisdegree.grantorNaval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
etd.thesisdegree.levelMastersen_US
etd.thesisdegree.nameM.S. in Operations Researchen_US
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