An application of the Rayleigh distribution to contract cost data
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Authors
Abernethy, Thomas S.
Subjects
Rayleigh distribution
Cost Estimation
Cost Estimation
Advisors
Boger, Dan C.
Date of Issue
1984-09
Date
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
Accurate cost models are essential to the proper monitoring of contract cost data. The greater the accuracy of the model, the earlier contract cost overruns can be recognized and their cause(s) ascertained. The availability of a variety of cost models allows flexibility in choosing the correct model for the particular circumstances and increases the chances of being able to select a model that can provide reliable forecasts about future costs. This thesis investigates the possibility of adapting the Bayleigh distribution to cost modelling and develops an APL algorithm which summarizes the results of the application of the Bayleigh model to historical contract cost data. The Bayleigh model was found to be applicable to cost modelling and exhibited some predictive capability in the 21 Navy contracts examined.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.