Backward Fokker-Planck equation for determining model valid prediction period

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Authors
Ivanov, Leonid M.
Fan, Chenwu
Chu, Peter C.
Subjects
backward Fokker-Planck equation
instantaneous error
Lorenz system
predictability
tolerance level
valid prediction period
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Date of Issue
2002
Date
2002
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Abstract
new concept, valid prediction period (VPP), is presented here to evaluate ocean (or atmospheric) model predictability. VPP is defined as the time period when the prediction error first exceeds a predetermined criterion (i.e., the tolerance level). It depends not only on the instantaneous error growth but also on the noise level, the initial error, and the tolerance level. The model predictability skill is then represented by a single scalar, VPP. The longer the VPP, the higher the model predictability skill is. A theoretical framework on the basis of the backward Fokker-Planck equation is developed to determine the mean and variance of VPP. A one-dimensional stochastic dynamical system [Nicolis, 1992] is taken as an example to illustrate the benefits of using VPP for model evaluation.
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Article
Description
Journal of Geophysical Research, American Geophysical Union, 107, C6, 10.1029/2001JC000879.
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https://hdl.handle.net/10945/36156
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Oceanography
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Chu, P.C., L.M. Ivanov, C.W. Fan, 2002: Backward Fokker-Planck equation for determining model valid prediction period (paper download). Journal of Geophysical Research, American Geophysical Union, 107, C6, 10.1029/2001JC000879.
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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