For better or for worse, but how about a recession?
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Authors
Arkes, Jeremy
Shen, Yu-Chu
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
2014
Date
Publisher
Language
Abstract
In light of the current economic crisis, we estimate hazard models of divorce to
determine how state and national unemployment rates affect the likelihood of a divorce
or separation. With data in the United States over the 1978–2008 period from the 1979
NLSY, we find some evidence indicating that a higher unemployment rate increases the
risk of a marriage ending for couples in years 6–10 of marriage (suggesting countercyclical
divorce/separation probabilities) but has no significant effect for couples in
years 1–5 of marriage and those married longer than 10 years. The estimates are
generally stronger in magnitude when using national instead of state unemployment
rates and when considering just divorces rather than the first observed divorce or
separation.
Type
Article
Description
The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/coep.12029
Series/Report No
Department
Business & Public Policy (GSBPP)
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
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Funder
Format
Citation
Contemporary Economic Policy (ISSN 1465-7287)
Vol. 32, No. 2, April 2014, 275–287
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.