Global Search for High-Value Extended-Range Forecast Products
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Authors
Regnier, Eva
Feldmeier, Joel W.
Sanchez, Susan
Upton, Steve
Subjects
decision science
decision-making
data farming
meteorology and oceanography (METOC)
Earth Systems Prediction Capability (ESPC)
subseasonal to seasonal (S2S)
decision-making
data farming
meteorology and oceanography (METOC)
Earth Systems Prediction Capability (ESPC)
subseasonal to seasonal (S2S)
Advisors
Date of Issue
2021
Date
2021
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School.
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School.
Language
en_US
Abstract
Navy Earth Systems Prediction Capability (ESPC) forecasts/re-analyses and a framework for evaluating their value in a simulated decision context will be used to identify potential forecast products with high value in Navy decision-making. ESPC ensemble and deterministic forecasts have been validated, with the ensemble slated for operational use in late 2020 (Barton et al., 2019). For a given accuracy, longer-range forecasts are more valuable than shorter-range because there is more flexibility to use them at longer lead times. Extended-range forecasts, such as those derived from ESPC, open up the possibility of using forecasts in planning decisions, setting the stage for even more effective exploitation of shorter-range forecasts. In support of and complementing the Naval Research Laboratory's outreach to operational forecasters and end-users to identify high-value extended-range forecast products based on ESPC, this work would broadly explore combinations of planning decision scenarios and parameters, ESPC variables and impacts to identify regions, seasons, variables and decision contexts in which ESPC could provide high value as measured by improving decisions and mission outcomes. This method may identify candidate products that combine variables or exploit sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictability in mission planning.
Type
Report
Description
NPS NRP Executive Summary
Series/Report No
Department
Graduate School of Defense Management
Organization
Naval Research Program (NRP)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
N2/N6 - Information Warfare
Funder
This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrp
Chief of Naval Operations (CNO)
Chief of Naval Operations (CNO)
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.